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EURE Volume 34, No. 102, Agosto 2008, 97-120
The growing distance between the place where people work and the place where people Uve has given rise to interregional commutation flows whose impact on local economies has still received scant attention. This article analysis the importance ofthis phenomenon in Chile and its impact on the welfare of Antofagasta, a Chilean región which attracts a big amount ofworkers living in other regions ofthe country. The results of an extended input output model, show that the indirect effects ofthis type of commutation on regional demand have negative and significant consequences on income and employment creationfor regions that are only attractive as a working place. These results emphasize the relevance of local development strategies oriented towards the creation of attractive places for living.
The World Bank, 2009, pages 273-299
Structure and Structural Change in the Chilean Economy pp 171-197
The purpose of this chapter is to re-examine the convergence process in Chile, utilizing more recent data and focusing on the role of public (domestic) and foreign direct investment in shaping the welfare levels across regions. There have been many prior studies focusing on the problem of regional convergence in Chile. Morandé et al. (1996) argue that some evidence is found to support regional GDP/pc absolute convergence in Barro-style estimations for the period 1960–1992. Here, they estimated that convergence occurred at an annual rate of 1.2%. However, the same authors find that using time series analysis results raises doubts about the convergence properties derived from their equation system. Fuentes (1996) obtains similar results postulating an annual convergence rate of 1.3%; in addition, he also estimated convergence rates with income per capita data, and found this to be much higher, of the order of 7.4% per annum.
The World Bank Economic Review, Volume 19, Issue 3, 23 December 2005, Pages 345–378,
This article employs established techniques from the spatial economics literature to identify regional patterns of income and growth in Mexico and to examine how they have changed over the period spanned by trade liberalization and how they may be linked to the income divergence observed following liberalization. The article first shows that divergence has emerged in the form of several income clusters that only partially correspond to traditional geographic regions. Next, when regions are defined by spatial correlation in incomes, a “south” clearly exists, but the “north” seems to be restricted to the states directly on the U.S. border and there is no “center” region. Overall, the principal dynamic of both the increased spatial dependency and the increased divergence lies not on the border but in the sustained underperformance of the southern states, starting before the North American Free-Trade Agreement, and to a lesser extent in the superior performance of an emerging convergence club in the north-center of the country.
The World Bank Economic Review Volume 19, Issue 3, 14 December 2005, Pages 449–472
Part of the rationale for the North American Free Trade Agreement was that it would increase trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, creating jobs and reducing migration to the United States. Since poor data on illegal migration to the United States make direct measurement difficult, data on migration within Mexico, where census data permit careful analysis, are used instead to evaluate the mechanism behind predictions on migration to the United States. Specifications are provided for migration within Mexico, incorporating measures of cost of living, amenities, and networks. Contrary to much of the literature, labor market variables enter very significantly and as predicted once possible credit constraint effects are controlled for. Greater exposure to FDI and trade deters outmigration, with the effects working partly through the labor market. Finally, some tentative inferences are presented about the impact of increased FDI on Mexico–U.S. migration. On average, a doubling of FDI inflows leads to a 1.5–2 percent drop in migration.
Notas de Población CEPAL, No. 79, diciembre 2004, pags. 97-154
Se revisa de manera sintética un conjunto amplio de teorías económicas sobre la migración considerando sus aplicaciones a distintas modaliddes de migración —entre campo y ciudad; entre regiones; contratada o especulativa— y su pertinencia para países en desarrollo. De la revisión de la literatura se deducen posibles aproximaciones para modelar los determinantes de la migración, considerando tanto los factores micro que influyen en las decisiones de las personas como aquellos factores de naturaleza más macro que influyen en los flujos. Se presenta un procedimiento específico para modelar la migración entre regiones considerando como variable condicionada los intercambios migratorios entre las regiones. Se usa modelos logit y probit con datos censales de migración de la PEA entre regiones de Chile en los períodos 1987-1992 y 1997-2002.
Georgetown Public Policy Reveiw Volume 9, No. 1, Fall 2003, Pages 1–16
Research on child labor has not addressed the fact that a large portion of child work is occurs in family businesses. We analyze the role that household productive activities in agriculture or commerce play in the determination of child work and schooling and whether these have differentiated effects by gender. Using Nicaraguan household data, we find that household economic activity leads to a higher probability of child work for boys and girls but does not displace schooling. The type of economic activity matters: agriculture increases the likelihood of work among boys; commercial businesses increase the probability of school enrollment of boys only. These findings suggest that child work in family employment has potentially large income effects that facilitate schooling.
Labor Migration Efficiency in Less Developed Countries, 1, 2002,
Migration decision-making in developing economies is addressed from the perspective of status in the labor force (unemployed or unemployed) and traditional concerns with utility maximization are expanded to include the role of assets and access to capital markets. A dynamic model is formulated and the results reveal that the migration mechanism is efficient when workers have access to borrowing from financial institutions; without this access, migration is shown to be inefficient, a fact exacerbated when consideration is directed to unemployed/poor workers in less prosperous regions.
Annals of Regional Science Volume31, August 2002, Pages 229-241
The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the migration processes that have been occurring in Chile between 1977–1982 and 1987–1992, as a market mechanism to re-allocate labor among regions. Using traditional consumer theory, a model is developed for a migrant who is evaluating migration. Secondly, this model is estimated, with cross section aggregate data, for both periods using a logit formulation. The results indicate that there is a strong force in the Chilean regional labor market, which serves to concentrate the workforce around the largest populated region of the country. Finally, regional labor markets are simulated to show that migration forces are very weak to arbitrage regional wages and unemployment rate and specific policy is required to promote balanced development across Chilean regions.
Dilemas y debates en torno al cobre. Santiago: Dolmen/Centro de Economía Aplicada, 2002
El impacto de un sector económico en una región determinada tiene múltiples dimensiones. En este estudio se estima el impacto del sector minero basados en la matriz de insumo producto (estimada previamente para la II Región) y se calculan los efectos sobre el producto, el ingreso, el empleo y las interacciones productivas del sector minero con los demás sectores de la economía regional. También se hace un resumen de las principales políticas que han afectado el desarrollo del sector minero, y una descripción de las principales políticas y acciones llevadas a cabo por las grandes empresas del sector para promover desarrollo en la comunidad de la región de Antofagasta.
Cuadernos de Economía Volumen 38, No.115, diciembre 2001, pags. 321-345
El objetivo de este trabajo es evaluar el proceso de migración que ha ocurrido en Chile en los períodos 1977-82 y 1987-92, como un mecanismo de reasignación laboral entre las regiones. Usando la teoría del consumidor tradicional, se desarrolla un modelo para el trabajador que está evaluando emigrar. Este modelo es estimado, con datos de corte transversal, usando una formulación logit para ambos períodos. Los resultados indican que aunque las señales del mercado están dirigiendo a los trabajadores a migrar en la dirección esperada, aún existe una fuerte tendencia en el mercado laboral chileno a concentrar la fuerza laboral alrededor de la región más poblada del país.
Resources Policy Volume 27, Issue 2, June 2001, Pages 119-134
The main objective of this paper is to measure the impact of the mining sector on the Chilean II region and evaluate the conditions that affect the magnitude of this impact. Using an Input Output matrix for the II region, we calculate the impact on output, income and employment. Later, we compare the impact on the labor market between private and state owned firms, showing that there is a significant difference in the management system of each firm that results in different costs and benefits for regional development. There also are important differences in impacts associated with fly-in fly-out workers from other regions that are partially measured by the multipliers. The analysis shows that the mining sector is not important in terms of the backward and forward linkages within the region, but is very important in terms of its volume of production. The main linkages of the mining sector are with the three sectors with the highest backward and forward linkages; when these linkages are considered along with mining’s level of production, mining is by far the most important sector of the Chilean II region. Finally, we survey other impacts on the quality of life of the regional population, describing the actions that have been taken by private and state owned firms, as well as the role of the government in promoting development in the II region.
Estudios de Economía Volumen 27, Nº 2, Diciembre 2000. Págs. 199-224
El objetivo de este trabajo es investigar la popular hipótesis de convergencia en el proceso de crecimiento económico en Chile. Usando herramientas de la econometría espacial, replicamos la mayoría de los resultados de la literatura previa sobre el tema para Chile. Sin embargo, encontramos nueva evidencia que muestra que en la última década, la de mayor crecimiento del país, el proceso de crecimiento no ha sido convergente, desde el punto de vista de cohesión regional. Los resultados revelan una alta y creciente concentración espacial del PIBpc regional. Además, dos “clusters” espaciales regionales son detectados para esa misma variable, indicando que el desarrollo económico de Chile puede estar segmentando espacialmente el país en regiones altamente productivas y dinámicas (Regiones I, II y III) y otras regiones que van paulatinamente quedando más rezagadas (Regiones VIII, IX y X). Las estimaciones de las tradicionales ecuaciones de convergencia apoyan la tesis de que en los años 90, un período de fuerte crecimiento económico, se puede descartar la idea de β-convergencia y que muy difícilmente se puede mantener la hipótesis de que las regiones chilenas se dirijan hacia una progresiva igualación de su producto per cápita. Adicionalmente, las estimaciones realizadas presentan, para ese período, síntomas de una fuerte correlación espacial, con lo que se estaría confirmando la idea de que existen ciertos componentes del crecimiento regional que son compartidos por regiones que se encuentran próximas entre sí.
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 2069, 10 1999
The authors derive a methodology for analyzing logit models in a rotating panel context. They then apply the technique to test two theories of why and when salaried workers enter the informal self-employed sector. In the traditional view, workers fired from formal jobs queue in the informal sector to reenter the formal sector. The authors argue that for many, self-employment is a desirable goal, but that credit constraints often dictate that they work in the formal sector until enough start-up capital is accumulated. They model the decision to move as a stopped Markov process in which, in each period, the worker compare accumulated savings with the target level for switching sector dictated by the forecasted stream of discounted utility arising from employment labor and capital in each sector. They test and find support for the model using the new logit methodology and rotating panel data from Mexico.
DISCUSSION PAPER-LONDON BUSINESS SCHOOL CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC FORECASTING, 1998.
In this paper we propose a test for seasonal unit roots which, under the presence of first order moving average errors, has a better empirical size and power than the Hyllerberg et al. (1990) (HEGY) test. Two alternatives are considered for this purpose. The first, suggested by Hall (1990), is based on instrumental variable methods. The second consists on developing a Hausman-type test (Hausman (1978) and Choi (1990, 1992)). Using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the HEGY test with instrument variables does not represent an improvement with respect the original HEGY test under the presence of moving average. On the other hand, the Hausman test (HT) does present better properties than the HEGY test. The test shows correct size no matter what the value of the moving average coefficient is. In addition, for all cases studied, the HT test had better power than the HEGY test.
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